Long Range Weather - what do you use?

[Savannah-Tom]

What do use for weather forecasting a week or more out? I've not had much luck with anything so far, but if you have some suggestions, I'd like to hear them.

tom

[steve]

Farmers Almanac?

Steve

[aktahoe1]

There is so much information its hard to look at just one however this page does (scroll down once your on the page) have a lot of information:

http://unofficialnetworks.com/weather/squaw-valley-lake-tahoe-weather-forecast/

As does this page when we are in Alaska

http://aawu.arh.noaa.gov/

I use this one everyday and find it to be pretty darn accurate. Would encourage everyone to sign up for the FREE trial version. Once I used for my 90 day trial I had to spend the $70 for the year. Its real good.
http://www.foreflight.com/ipad

AKT

[scottnt]

Here's one for the Pacific Northwest I use: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... cp3+//72/3

[porterjet]

binoculars.

[Glidergeek]

http://classic.wunderground.com/

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... &region=sw

[stewartb]

I look at the NOAA site several times a day on average. This link is for my home region but that's easily adjusted. In the left margin I have lots of options to view. Aviation weather, marine weather, river flow data, mesonet reports, current airport observation reports, etc. It's daily forecasts are as good as anyone's but Alaska weather is notorious for being unpredictable, particularly coastal weather. I also use iPhone weather apps and have found Accuweather to be the most accurate and user friendly. And specifically for Alaska I use my iPhone app written by my friend Mike Skup (Skuptech) for Alaska aviation cameras (AKAvCAMsLt). If you live in Alaska you probably already have it. If you plan to visit Alaska you might ought to get it. It's an iPhone adaptation of the weather cams in the second attached link.

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/index.php

http://akweathercams.faa.gov/sitelist.php

[OregonMaule]

I'll call you and you can call Don on the Space station. He'll tell us what is coming. ha ha

Serious note IMO long range is sketchy at best. The weather channel goes out 10 days, I like them. Seems like no products are very good beyond that. Local TV guys are pretty good.

Cheers

[Zzz]

I read the forecast discussion on NWS instead of just looking at the icons and the daily summaries. They're written by NWS forecasters who are the guys juggling the model data. For our area, they are written by a rotating group of people at Portland NWS.

What I like about it is that they explain their forecast in a rather detailed synopsis, discussing the exact events that contribute to the next event, like this. I learned a lot about weather by reading these guys.

Code: Select all

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SPREADING ONTO THE COAST BEING PUSHED BY A 160+ KT JETSTREAM. RAIN
AND WIND WILL INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE  FOCUS MAYBE
FURTHER SOUTH SUCH THAT OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS GET THE
BRUNT OF THIS ONE. OROGRAPHICS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION HIGH FOR THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. THE RAIN WILL SAG SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST.

THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EASES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
FOR A BRIEF BREAK AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA...THEN A
VERY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF LOW MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING FROM
925 MB ALL THE WAY UP TO 500 MB OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL BE INITIALLY FOCUSED SOUTH...THEN THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

MODELS MOVE A SFC LOW NORTH OF VANCOUVER ISLAND FRIDAY WITH A SFC
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA...AS THE SFC LOW  HEADS EAST THROUGH
B.C. THIS SYSTEM HAS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH IT...AND A BIT BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
DECENT QPF FOR THE AREA AND STRONG WIND ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA ALONG
THE COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY...BACK BELOW
THE PASSES...SO MORE SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLYSNOW LEVELS FALL
BELOW THE PASS LEVEL. THEREFORE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE...AND WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON.


The other thing that I think in an invaluable tool is the jet stream position. Wherever that jet stream travels, there is the weather. A rule of thumb is that if you're north of the jet, you're in the colder arctic air, if you're south of it, you're in warmer air, and if it's right over you, you're getting pounded or experiencing whatever weather track is coming out of the Aleutians, generally. That particular graphics forecasts out to 144 hrs, which isn't really long term, but it's still pretty useful.

All weather products use NOAA/NWS data, regardless what front end they use. Like you said, any forecast greater than 7 days IMO is highly theoretical and is the product of computer models that will change based on all events between today and then, so... you're better off crossing your fingers.

[58Skylane]

Farmers Almanac?

Steve

binoculars.

I'll call you and you can call Don on the Space station. He'll tell us what is coming. ha ha

Serious note IMO long range is sketchy at best. The weather channel goes out 10 days, I like them. Seems like no products are very good beyond that. Local TV guys are pretty good.

Cheers

I'm with you three. Been on the road with outdoor events for the last 20 years and always have looked at weather forecast over a week for some planning. Depending what part of the country your in during a certain season, it's next to impossible to know what the weather is going to be like the next day (or later the same day). I've been to events where the Wx forecast was to be nice and sunny all weekend long, just for it to actually be cold and rainy all weekend long. And vise verses. To me, weather can be a crazy phenomenon no matter where your at. Most of the time it can be predictable. But, I've been more than surprised a few dozen times. Just gotta be prepared for it.

[mtv]

A weather forecast is a horoscope with numbers.

A "long range" weather forecast has substantially lower reliability in my experience.

It's a GREAT idea to look out ahead and try to guess what's coming, but virtually any of the good weather sites will allow you to do that. The rest is up to you.

I use Telvent. State of MN provides a subscription for resident pilots. Great site.

MTV

[L-19]

Since it was recommended here this is what I like to use.

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=9069

[GumpAir]

I use WeatherUnderground, classic version, and have linked my home weather stations through them for years.

http://classic.wunderground.com/cgi-bin ... 03.4.99999

But, as noted above, most of the sites I've seen base on the NWS information. And... It's mostly smoke and mirrors more than a few hours out.

Gump

[Bighorn]

Gump

what you using for a weather station and are you doing the web cam as well?

[GumpAir]

I use the Oregon Scientific WMR 968 wireless station, with Virtual Weather software: VWS V12.07.

It's getting rather long of tooth, and when the time comes to replace it, I'll probably ask Zane to get the scoop from his lovely bride as to the latest and greatest Oregon Scientific weather gear. And in all reality I'll start from scratch, shitcanning the PC for a Mac, and going all new everything in the house that's computer/wireless/weather station related in one big $$$$ orgy.

And... No webcam at the moment.

Gump

[Savannah-Tom]

Thanks all, for the replies. While there is no question that the accuracy falls off rapidly with longer forecasts, the weather discussions that Zane mentions, and the folks on tv usually talk about multiple models agreeing or not. That got me to wondering if some weather outlets do a better job of picking the model. Anyway, I'll have fun going to the many sites you have offered and see how they do. Thanks.

tom

[stewartb]

Weather forecast reliability varies by region. Alaska weath forecasts are unreliable. Nobody's fault, it's just the nature of the beast. Texas, on the other hand? The forecasters can predict several days in advance and call it to the hour it'll start. Temperature forecasts are uncanny in their accuracy, even a week out. This Alaska boy continues to marvel at the good forecasting these Texas weather folks provide.

[Oldcrowe]

In the mid US I have found Weatherunderground (classic please) is the most accurate for cloud cover, precipitation and wind direction but they are typically LOW on wind speed when it really blows. For long range system prediction http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-wv.html is amayzing!

[stewartb]

Another good link for Alaska guys. Scroll to the map at the lower right of the page. Place your cursor over the point of interest and click. You'll get a local area 7 day forecast for that specific point. Very nice!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=AKZ101

[clippwagon]

I use Prog charts the most. Love the big blue "H"s, not a big fan of the big "L"s, and some of that depends on if there's a warm, cold or occluded front coming with it. Second, I use the window and hope for a smooth ride!

Clippwagon